S-MD: Using Probability to Make Decisions

Using Probability to Make Decisions

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Using Probability to Make Decisions applies probability concepts to evaluate strategies and analyze outcomes in real-world decisions. Random variables and their probability distributions are defined and graphed, and expected value is calculated and interpreted. Probability models inform decisions in contexts such as product testing, medical diagnostics, and game strategy.

S-MD.1(+) Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions.S-MD.2(+) Calculate the expected value of a random variable; interpret it as the mean of the probability distribution.S-MD.3(+) Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which theoretical probabilities can be calculated; find the expected value. For example, find the theoretical probability distribution for the number of correct answers obtained by guessing on all five questions of a multiple-choice test where each question has four choices, and find the expected grade under various grading schemes.S-MD.4(+) Develop a probability distribution for a random variable defined for a sample space in which probabilities are assigned empirically; find the expected value. For example, find a current data distribution on the number of TV sets per household in the United States, and calculate the expected number of sets per household. How many TV sets would you expect to find in 100 randomly selected households?S-MD.5(+) Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values.S-MD.6(+) Use probabilities to make fair decisions (e.g., drawing by lots, using a random number generator).S-MD.7(+) Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game).
Example Problems
A different product's reviews have the following distribution for star ratings T.
T12345
P(T)0.080.120.280.300.22


Find the indicated probability.
A fair coin is flipped 5 times. Let be the number of heads. What is the expected value of ?
In a game you roll a fair six-sided die. You receive (3 times the number showing) dollars minus 5 dollars. What is the expected payout?
An animal‑shelter manager tracks daily adoptions.
Let
= the number of animals adopted in one day.
A = # adopted01234
Probability0.150.350.300.150.05


Find the
mean of .
A photocopier has a chance of breaking this month, which would cost to repair; otherwise, there is no repair cost. What is the expected repair cost for the month?
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