S-MD: Using Probability to Make Decisions

Using Probability to Make Decisions

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Using Probability to Make Decisions applies probability to expected value and decision analysis. One cluster defines random variables and probability distributions and calculates expected values. A second applies expected value to weigh outcomes of decisions, evaluate fairness of games, and analyze real-world strategies using probability concepts.

S-MD.ACalculate expected values and use them to solve problemsS-MD.BUse probability to evaluate outcomes of decisions
Example Problems
A fair coin is flipped 5 times. Let be the number of heads. What is the expected value of ?
Keisha rolls a fair six-sided die three times. She earns points based on how many sixes she rolls according to the table below.

Number of sixes0123
Points04916


What is the
expected number of points Keisha will score?
Round your answer to the
nearest hundredth.
In a game you roll a fair six-sided die. You receive (3 times the number showing) dollars minus 5 dollars. What is the expected payout?
A photocopier has a chance of breaking this month, which would cost to repair; otherwise, there is no repair cost. What is the expected repair cost for the month?
A different product's reviews have the following distribution for star ratings T.
T12345
P(T)0.080.120.280.300.22


Find the indicated probability.
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