7.DS.C: Model and analyze probability to interpret chance events, compare models with observed data, and make predictions.

Model and analyze probability to interpret chance events, compare models with observed data, and make predictions.

7.DS.C.4Explain that a probability of 0 means the event is impossible, 1 means it is certain, and values closer to 0 or 1 indicate how unlikely or likely the event is. Use this understanding to estimate the probability of chance events based on knowledge about the context, and compare the likelihood of different events.7.DS.C.5Understand and apply long-run relative frequency to approximate probabilities and make predictions about chance events. a. Use data collection or simulation to approximate the probability of a chance event by observing its long-run relative frequency. b. Use a known or estimated probability to evaluate whether the number of outcomes in a given number of simulation trials is reasonable. c. Use visual representations (e.g., bar graphs, circle graphs) to compare and interpret probabilities.7.DS.C.6Develop and use probability models to find probabilities of events and compare them to observed results. a. Create a uniform probability model for situations where outcomes are equally likely and use the model to calculate the probability of an event. b. Create a probability model using observed frequencies and use it to estimate the probability of an event. c. Compare probabilities from a model to observed data and explain possible reasons for any differences.

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