7.PR.6

Using mathematical reasoning, investigate chance processes and develop, evaluate, and use probability models to find probabilities of simple events presented in authentic situations.

7.PR.6.1Represent the probability of a chance event as a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Describe that a probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.7.PR.6.2Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on an event and observing its long-run relative frequency will approach the theoretical probability.7.PR.6.3Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of simple events. Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities of events. If the probabilities are not close, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.7.PR.6.4Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes and use the model to determine probabilities of events.7.PR.6.5Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process.7.PR.6.6Use appropriate graphical displays and numerical summaries from data distributions with categorical or quantitative (numerical) variables as probability models to draw informal inferences about two samples or populations.
Example Problems
A bag contains 9 blue candies, 7 red candies and 5 green candies.
A candy is chosen from the bag at random.

Find the probability that the candy is:
Not Orange
A letter is selected at random from the word F I B O N A C C I.

Find the probability that the letter is:
Not A
Write your answer as a fraction or as a decimal rounded to the nearest hundredth.
A bag contains 9 blue candies, 7 red candies and 5 green candies.
A candy is chosen from the bag at random.

Find the probability that the candy is:
Yellow
Goblins

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